We cannot learn from history in complex systems, except at the meta level (we can learn that we cannot learn, for example). This follows once one accepts that causality is impossible to pin down given an observation of a phenomenon.
Ericsson et al show that learning, and becoming an expert, requires:
- A tight relationship between action and consequence - i.e causality needs to be discoverable
- Quick and clear feedback on actions
- Repeatability
Let us consider whether a brain surgeon passes these criteria. Causality is indeed easily discoverable, nicking an artery in the theatre will make it clear that a mistake has been made - there is a tight relationship between action and consequence. The feedback is often immediate, at least in terms of the surgical procedure itself. Since there is relatively minor variability between human brains, and since the operation theatre is a controlled environment, the entire process of “brain surgery” is highly repeatable.
This makes brain surgery a classic domain for learning from the past and allows the creation of experts.
Now let us look at managing the environment, (enough people are picking on economists now, so I’ll skip them), and see if it is possible to learn from the past and become an expert in this domain. Are the three criteria satisfied?
First, causality is very difficult to identify. Small changes in any number of parameters, ranging from climate to prey availability can have large and sudden impact on predator populations. Given a phenomenon, it hard to say what caused it. If a human action is involved, outcomes are unpredictable and can spiral out of control when coupled with external variations (see the many instances of predator introduction for hilarious examples) .
Second, the results can take years to manifest themselves. The chain of events precipitated by an action can cascade into a series of relatively small changes until it shows up as a big impact a long way down the daisy-chain. Feedback on actions is far from immediate. Often, the people initiating the action are no longer even in charge anymore. Attempts to control Wolf populations in Yellow Stone National Park had impacts decades down the line.
Third, the environment is not controlled. Conditions that held once need not hold after a period of time has passed. Rivers dry up, predator-prey populations change all the time, and climate changes make any assumptions of stationary processes unjustified. Actions that worked earlier need not work now, because the underlying mechanisms may have changed.
All three conditions for learning and expertise are violated. Under these conditions, it is not possible to learn from the past and become an expert.
An “expert” at managing the environment can only be someone who takes a very fallible approach and shows humility and respect in the face of the unknown.
Other domains where experts cannot be present by the nature of the system itself: The movie industry, publishing, economics, stock-markets, climate, politics, wars, … the list goes on.
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